UNDERSTANDING GOLD

To understand Gold, or the power of Gold, you need to first understand the value of an item. Let us pick a Horse.

In 1875 you could buy a basic horse for a $20 "Double Eagle" gold piece. This was 1 ounce [.98 oz] of pure Gold with the face value of $20.00. The Horse was nothing special. Not a race horse or show horse...just a horse.

Today you can buy a similar horse for about $1,000. Money, specifically US Dollars, have inflated. The same $1000 will also buy 1 ounce of gold in the form of the Gold American Eagle coin.

The value of the Horse and the Gold remained the same for over one hundred years while the value of the US Dollar changed due to inflation and money supply mismanagement. The Dollar is just paper and of very little real value.

The current over spending in Washington on "bail outs" will result in more inflation and greater devalue of the US Dollar. If there was ever a good time to buy gold, it is now. Soon it will take $20 dollars to buy a gallon of milk. At that point one ounce of Gold will be worth $2,500.

EQUINOX

Today is March 20. Vernal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. This means the start of Spring. Today daylight and night are equal [thus Equinox]. From now until June 21 [Summer Solstice] the days will get longer. Spring training has already begun and the Dodgers will have their Day Home opener on Monday, April 13.

THE HOLIEST DAY OF THE YEAR

Ahhh...another beautiful day in Ireland. It's the rain ya know.

I could not let the day go by without a brief mention of me Mum. If we went out and she was asked, "Would you like a drink?'" She would say, "I'll be havin that Irish wine." And people would say, "Well, I didn't know they had wine in Ireland." And...she would laugh and say, "it's that old Irish whine...I wish the English would go home."

Another favorite, was when she was asked if she had a drinking problem by one of our neighbors. Mum turned and said, "Well, I have always viewed it as more of a solution then a problem."Finally, Mum always said she hated AA, Alcoholics Anonymous. She said it was for "quitters."

Every year on St Patrick"s Day she cooked corn beef. I asked her if Corn Beef was invented in Ireland. She said no. She told me we eat to remember. Mum said that people were starving during the potato famine, 1845 -1855. The English hoped to starve all of Ireland to death and be rid of the Irish people. Nobody would do anything to help. Europe ignored the problem. But, the Quakers, in America sent barrels of Corned Beef to Ireland. And we will be eating Corn Beef tonight to remember the million plus Irish men, women, and children who starved. Long before CNN and the Holocaust, the English let a million people starve. They gave away free one way tickets to America. Just to get people to leave. Today, more Irish live in America then Ireland.

Tough people the Irish. I miss you Mom.

RETURN TO VALUE

The economy has been a powerful force for change. More than President O'mama, the economy has brought real change to America. Nowhere is this more clear then in consumer spending.

As we watch the stock market dive lower we need to remember that for each sale that drives stock lower, someone is taking cash out of the market. Where is all this cash going? It isn't going to buy new big fancy homes like three years ago. And, It isn't going to buy new SUVs like in the past. People are clearly holding on to their money.

As I watch for signs of cash turning up in new places, I find a general return to value. People are spending, but they are spending better. All that stuff they know was wrong has nearly stopped. Today, people with money are spending it on those things that the need and on value.

This includes groceries. The grocery store is booming. Suddenly cooking is cool and more and more people are skipping the long wait and crappy service for an over priced mediocre meal. Chains, like TGI Friday and others, are begging for business when two years ago you had a rude hostess tell you it would be a 30 minute wait. Today you can stay home and cook in those 30 minutes and save half the cost of that meal.

People are also spending on cars. Not new cars, Used cars and car maintenance. More and more people are saying, "I really don't need a new car payment." They are fixing the car they drive and deciding to keep it another year. Pam's convertible is paid off and it is 7 years old.

Me, I'm saving too. For the past ten years I have had a running fight with the cleaners about my shirts. I ask for Heavy Starch. The shirts come back limp as a wet noodle. I complain and they act like I don't know anything about laundry. Now I buy starch and Iron my own shirts. Guess what...I do a better job and they are cheaper.

We were promised change and change has come to America. The one good thing about all this is that service will have to improve if we ever plan to return to the "good ol days."

WORK.....................update

I think you know I was "laid off" at the end of January. I have been looking for a new job and wanted to send out an update.

I was offered four new jobs and I accepted them all.

I decided back in 2002, when I was 55, to shift my career to a job I could do for the long term. Pam is much younger and working. I have no real hobbies other than Pam and Jack. So I decided I needed a long term job that I can do for another 15 years. I have managed a large staff and helped to build businesses. I have nothing to prove with my career and I'm not concerned about my title or ego. I'm really only working for the money. Period.

Pam earns more than enough for our family. But, we need to plan for Pam's retirement and Jack's college. I also have continued expenses with Meredith and Colleen in college. My plan has worked for the past 7 years. I have sold seafood over the phone and it's been easy. But, long story short, I need to work for 4 to 8 more years. The recent lay off gave me a chance to improve my situation. My GOAL is to work from my Home Office and sell customers over the phone.

I searched all of February to find jobs working from home. I found three selling meat or seafood as an "independent contractor." These are jobs in which the company will pay me a small base salary to set up and run my Home Office. Then they pay commission on the sales I make to customers. The three jobs I found do not conflict with each other and if all goes as planned I will begin next week.

The problem with these jobs is they could stop at any point. The economy is not helping seafood sales. All of these companies are trying to expand cheaply by hiring people like me. If my sales are good, I will continue. If not...back to the search.

At the same time, I was offered a great job working for a really good company. But it is in Vernon, CA. This is downtown LA. The people are great, they are well financed, been in business for 60 years. They like me and I respect them. Did I tell you the job is in Vernon? That's 35 miles each way. Not part of the Home Office plan.

So I accepted this job and agreed to start on April 6. I will try working from Home for two weeks for the three companies and if that fails, I will drive to Vernon. The next two weeks will be a "TEST PERIOD" to see how this will work out. If it goes well, I will keep at it from Home. If it fails or it is just too stupid, I will get up at 5:30 and drive to Vernon five days a week.

The good news, I have a job. Details will follow.

THE RECESSION

I wrote back on February 23 about Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. He was the ONLY person to forecast the current economic crisis.

Yesterday, Mr Roubini gave a speech in which he said the current crisis will continue for up to 36 months and will cost the financial system over $3.5 trillion. He went on to say the GDP [Gross Domestic Product] will stall at zero growth and may go negative. He predicted a 33% chance of an "L" shaped recession in which the economy falls and then remains flat with zero growth.

We all need to listen to this guy. Many called him "Dr. Doom" when he predicted the current crisis. A few very good Economist said he was dead wrong about the future of the economy. Nearly everything he predicted has come true and his forecast today for the next three years is not good.

Here is a link to the CNBC report: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949

The ARIS 2008 Report

Van Morrison sings about it "...no religion, no religion, no religion here today." Now the new ARIS [American Religious Identification Survey 2008] is out today and it shows another reduction in American faith.

The first survey was done in 1990. 86% of Americans viewed themselves as Christians. This dropped in 2001 to 77% and in 2008 to 76%. Moreover, the group with NO religious affiliation, those who claim to be atheist or non religious, has grown to 15% or 34 million Americans. Even the silliest Group, those who claim "don't know" or undecided, grew to 5% of the population. One can assume these are not deep thinkers since they have no opinion on the topic. Only the Muslims grew in numbers who believe. In 1990 they were .3% and in 2008 they doubled to .6 % of the population. I'm sure this is only a fad...it being cool to be Muslim during the last 10 years.

With all the prayers at football games and on American Idol, people thanking Jesus for making a touchdown or moving to the final 13, you would think Belief was on the rise. But no. More and more Americans like those in Europe, are saying they are secularist.

Here is a link to the study: http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/ Go read this for yourself. Whatever you believe, this study seems to say all the public displays of religion are not reflecting the reality of American Faith.

Me, oh, I'm sticking with Santa. He brought me the bicycle and proved himself to me many years ago.

The Stock Market

The Dow Jones Industrial average closed yesterday at 6544. This is down 50% from it's high of one year ago. This massive drop means that America has lost about half it's wealth over the past year.

The Stock Market is the place were people put money to earn more money. They invest to help create new businesses and new jobs in companies. In return for this investment, they earn a return, hopefully better then the local Bank can pay in interest.

Many people see the Stock Market as the place were "rich people buy companies." This is an over simplification. If a person, you for example, has a dollar and wants to earn money on it, you can invest it. Millions of Americans do this with 401K retirement plans and other pension funds. These funds take all the dollars from the workers and invest in the Stock Market.

Half of these retirement investments are gone because the Stock Market has dropped. This means millions of Americans will NOT retire in the next 10 years and they will work until they are 80.

The question now is "how low will it go?"

PROP 8 goes to COURT

I understand that many of you who read this Blog do not support Gay Marriage. Regardless, the issue is NOT about being Gay or being married. The issue is about equality and civil rights. Today the California Supreme Court in San Francisco began hearing the legal arguments regarding the passing of Prop 8. In my view this will be a landmark decision on two levels.

First, it is about the right of citizens to change the state constitution by a public referendum only requiring 51 % of the vote. It could be argued, and will be argued, that 51% of the voters COULD vote Hispanics or Asians or Blacks or Women out of the state. Or, take away their right to vote or whatever. The Constitution was not set up to be modified by popular vote in the same way you vote for American Idol. Moreover just because 51% of the voters say anything does not make it legal or right.

Second, the equal protection provision of the US Constitution says that everyone must be treated in the same manner. To that end, everyone is allowed to get a marriage license but some are restricted and that is unfair. This was the case when the laws were changed to allow inter-racial marriage. I can remember when Black guys could not marry white women. Tell that to Seal. Well those laws were struck down and in much the same way Prop 8 is doomed.

Finally, who cares who marries anyone. Why should I or you care if other people want to be happy or in love. The law does not require churches to marry Gays. It only allows for the license to be granted.

Pam and I worked hard to tell everyone "NO on H8". Now the next phase has begun.