Monday, November 7, 2011

2013 is closer than you think



Most Amerikans don't pay attention to financial news and even less to European financial news. That's too bad. If you had been following this news for the past three years you know it is all bad and getting worse. There appears to be no end to the sovereign debt crisis. The European leaders have failed repeatedly to come up with a plan to resolve these debt issues. Amerikans have been little help. We and the British have our own problems and likewise we do not have a long term solution. Two clear schools of thought have developed along traditional lines. One, to cut Government spending to the bare minimum, thus reducing ongoing future debt. The other idea is to spend more on "infrastructure" to help rebuild the economy and create future tax revenue.  I'm not an Economist. Regardless, Economist have not had a good track record over the past ten years, so I am qualified [as Jesse Jackson used to say] to comment on the economic mess. One point is painfully clear. Nobody in government seems to have the answer or ability to resolve the problem.

Here in the US it is estimated that the total loss from the crisis is about 7 Trillion dollars. That is really a lot of money. Somebody has to pay this money back or take it as a loss on their balance sheet. The problem is nobody wants to take on this debt or pay it off. I can understand why. It is a crushing amount. Even if this debt is restructured....extended to be paid off over longer time, it will take millions of tax payers hundreds of years to pay this down.

Most of us did not create the financial crisis we are facing as a nation. It would be easy to say, "Let the Bankers who created this mess pay for it." The hard fact is that even if they paid back everything they earned in salary and bonus money, it would not add up to one Trillion dollars. Somebody else is going to have to help pay this money. If, as it is often suggested, that Business pay more taxes, then in reality they will pass these tax cost on to us, their customers, and in the end we will pay it.

I think each family needs to have their own Financial Plan for the future. I have had one my whole life. I learned all about financial planning from the economist in our family, Mom. She grew up in the Depression. Her father died when she was young and my Grandmother struggled to feed and clothe her four kids. Mom learned Econ 101; Spend only what you can afford and save half of what you earn. She went to work at 14 and never graduated high school. When she died, she only owed the phone bill. My mother was the leading Economist of my life. Mom would say we need to cut expenses and increase income. This is good advice for government and for each of us.

Cutting expenses means only spending on the things you absolutely need. It also includes working to reduce or limit your tax burden. Clearly, everyone is going to be paying more in taxes over the next ten years. You need to know and understand the tax laws. They will be changing in the near future as politicians try to come up with ways to increase government income [taxes]. If you don't know or understand taxes you better learn. In the macro economy governments will be forced to cut spending and increase taxes. On the micro or individual level the "trick" will be to find ways to cut spending and limit the taxes you pay.  

If sovereign debt brings Europe to a crash, and I really think it will, Amerika and Britain will be drug into this mess. No matter what happens, 2013 will be a restructuring year politically and out of this will come new taxes and bigger spending cuts by government. Poor people will suffer. People with income will be taxed. Each of us needs to plan ahead by cutting spending and limiting or taxes.


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